CBB Weekly Automotive Market Update 11/30/2021

November 30 2021
Kim Breidenbach

Wholesale Prices, Week Ending November 26th

Prices continue to rise in the Canadian used wholesale market, as prices increased for the 16th straight week. Price increases were seen across all 22 vehicle segments, mainly due to declining inventory in both new and used vehicles. Overall, prices increased +0.60% for the week, down from last week’s record increases. The Car segments up +0.49% and Truck/SUV segments up +0.71%. The Compact Van segment saw the largest price increase (+1.76%) for the week, followed by Compact Car (+1.68%) and Minivan (+1.67%).

  This Week Last Week 2017-2019 Average (Same Week)
Car
segments
+0.49% +1.00% -0.43%
Truck
& SUV segments
+0.71% +1.46% -0.31%
Market +0.60% +1.24% -0.47%

Car Segments

• Overall, volume-weighted wholesale used car prices increased +0.49% for the week, continuing the positive trend for the 14th straight week.
• All 9 car segments saw prices increase this week – with Prestige Luxury Car (+0.04%) and Premium Sporty Car (+0.12%) seeing the smallest increases.
• The Compact Car segment had the largest price increase for the week (+1.68%) followed by Sub-Compact Car (+1.55%) and Mid-Size Car (+1.17%).

Truck Segments

• For the 11th consecutive week, all 13 Truck/SUV segments saw prices increase. Collectively, the Truck/SUV segments were up +0.71% for the week.
• The Compact Van segment had the largest price increase for Truck/SUV segments at +1.76%, followed by Minivan (+1.67%) and Full-Size Van (+1.62%).
• Small Pickup Segment (+0.08%) and Full-Size Luxury Crossover/SUV (+0.15%) saw the smallest price increase for the week.

Used Retail Prices & Listing Volumes

The average listing price for used vehicles continues to hit historic highs week-over-week, as the 14-day moving average now sits above $31,000. Analysis is based on approximately 120,000 vehicles listed for sale on Canadian dealer lots.

The number of used active listings continues to fall and now sits below 112,000 -- the lowest point in the last 3 years. The 14-day moving average has now sits at ~104,000 units.

Wholesale

The Canadian wholesale market continues to increase yet again. This past week, nearly all segments reported increasing values.

Supply remains low while demand continues to be strong on both sides of the border. Upstream channels continue to tap supply before it can be available at physical auctions.

Conversion rates remained strong this past week. Rates were observed into the 75% range on some lanes last week, with the few low kilometer, good condition units garnering high levels of bidding activity and premium pricing. In general, the quality of vehicles at auction remains somewhat below average as the supply of better-quality vehicles continues to be bought upstream.

The U.S. market exchange rate is slightly lower compared to the previous week and remains favourable for exportation when price and demand are taken into consideration.  

Canadian Black Book’s Market Insights

Economics & Government

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 1.3% in the 3rd quarter, driven by Consumer spending and exports.
• Double-digit household saving rate continues, this was the 6th consecutive quarter with double-digit household saving rate (+11.0%)
• The Canadian dollar fell slightly to finish the week at $0.78.

U.S. Market

In the U.S., overall Car and Truck segments (+0.18%) increased for a thirteenth week; the prior week increased by +0.64%.

Volume-weighted Car segments increased +0.13%, compared to the prior week’s increase of +0.70%:
• Compact (+0.26%) and Full-Size (+0.25%) Car segments reported gains but reduced compared to the prior week that reported increases of +0.76% and +0.53%, respectively.
• After eight weeks of increases, Sporty Cars reported a minimal decline of -0.05%. By comparison, the same week in 2019 reported a decline of -0.76%.

Volume-weighted Truck segments increased +0.21%; the previous week had an increase of +0.62%:
• Full-Size Vans had the largest segment increase last week with a gain of +1.37%.
• Compact Vans (+1.21%) also reported a large increase. This segment has now had increases in forty-one out of the last forty-three weeks.
• Full-Size Pickups increased for an eleventh week in a row for an average weekly increase of +0.23%.

Industry News

• Nissan boss warns no end in sight to global chip shortage. “I can't give you a date. This new variant could add pressure to that, so how well we react is going to be crucial."
• GM tells dealers it will offer heated seats on more 2022 vehicles after all.
• Toyota’s Output Slumps 26% on Prolonged Supply-Chain Snarls. The world’s No. 1 carmaker said Monday it produced 627,452 vehicles in October, down from 845,107 units a year earlier. Global sales also fell 20% for the month to 677,564 units.