09.03.2025

2025 Vehicle Depreciation Report Released by Canadian Black Book and Fitch Ratings

MARKHAM, ON (September 3, 2025) – Canadian Black Book, a division of Hearst that provides industry-leading used vehicle valuations and residual value forecast solutions, in collaboration with Fitch Ratings, today unveiled the 2025 Vehicle Depreciation Report. This comprehensive report presents key insights and data from the Canadian automotive market, highlighting significant trends in car and truck depreciation, market performance, and projections for the coming year.

Canadian Automotive Market Insights:

  • Depreciation Trends: In 2024, vehicle depreciation averaged 15.5%, higher than historical norms but showing a return toward market stability. Luxury and prestige segments experienced the steepest declines, while light trucks and mainstream vehicles showed stronger resilience.
  • EV Market Dynamics: Battery-electric vehicles saw the sharpest depreciation, with four-year-old models down 14% year-over-year, reflecting oversupply and fast-moving technological shifts.
  • Auto Loan Performance: Fitch reported rising delinquencies and losses in Canadian auto loan ABS, driven by consumer debt pressures, a weakening labour market, and tariff impacts. Prime ABS pools, however, continue to show resilience.

Market Forecasts for 2025:

  • Depreciation Projections: Depreciation is expected to remain elevated but continue trending toward normalization as supply stabilizes and affordability pressures reshape buyer behavior.
  • Economic Pressures: Tariffs, higher debt servicing costs, and slower economic growth are expected to weigh on the auto sector, influencing both demand and financing conditions.
  • EV Market Outlook: A surge of used EV supply from maturing leases will test residual values, with outcomes varying widely across brands depending on battery health, incentives, and model competitiveness.

Canadian Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index:

The Wholesale Used Vehicle Retention Index recorded a 7.8% decline in 2024, reflecting a measured correction from pandemic-era highs. While values are projected to continue softening, retention is expected to remain structurally above pre-pandemic averages due to higher new-vehicle pricing, extended ownership cycles, and evolving consumer habits.

This report underscores Canadian Black Book’s ongoing commitment to delivering critical insights that empower stakeholders to navigate an evolving automotive landscape with confidence. For more information or to download the full report, visit https://www.canadianblackbook.com/depreciation-reports/

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