01.03.2023

Market Insights – 1/3/2023

Wholesale Prices, Week Ending December 31st

Overall, the Canadian used wholesale market saw prices decline for the week (-0.45%). Both Car and Truck/SUV segments performed similarly, with Car segment prices declining -0.44% and Truck/SUV segment prices declining -0.45% last week. One of the 22 segments had values increase for the week which was Compact Van (+0.54%), followed by Compact Car at (-0.02%).

Car Segments

• Last week, overall car segments decreased on average by -0.44%.
• All segments had decreases. Those with the largest declines were Full-Size Car (-1.46%), followed by Premium Sporty Car (-0.73%), and Sporty Car (-0.67%).
• Other segments with the same notable declines were both Near Luxury Car and Sub-Compact Car (-0.43%).

Truck Segments

• Last week, overall truck segments decreased on average by -0.45%.
• Segments with the largest declines were Small Pickup (-0.79%), both Full-Size Luxury Crossover and Full-Size Pickup had the same decrease (-0.75%), followed by Mid-Size Luxury Crossover/SUV (-0.66%), and Sub-Compact Crossover (-0.60%).
• One segment had an increase. That segment was Compact Van (+0.54%).

Used Retail Prices & Listing Volumes

The average listing price for used vehicles was consistent week-over-week, as the 14-day moving average was at roughly $36,500. Analysis is based on approximately 200,000 vehicles listed for sale on Canadian dealer lots.

Wholesale

The Canadian wholesale market decreased further last week. The overall decreases were larger than the historical average. Supply remains low with demand for more recent and clean condition vehicles on both sides of the border. Upstream channels continue to tap supply before it can be available to wholesale markets.

Conversion rates were similar to last week. Some observed sell rates were as high as 54% but most were in the 25-35% range. Last week we saw less sellers dropping floors, which has been contributing to lanes with lower sell rates.

Canadian Black Book’s Market Insights

Economics & Government

• The Canadian Federal government budget deficit decreased to 1.9 billion in October 2022 from 3.68 billion October 2023.
• The TSX composite index declined 8.7% over the course of 2022 which was its worst year since 2018.
• Canada’s ban on foreign real-estate buyers has come into effect as of January 1 and will remain in effect for at least the next two years.
• The Canadian dollar increased slightly closing at $0.735 this Monday.

U.S. Market

In the U.S., overall, Car and Truck segments decreased –0.79% last week; the prior week decreased by -0.39%.

Volume-weighted Car segments decreased -0.77%, compared to the prior week’s decrease of -0.49%:

• All nine Car segments decreased last week, with two of the nine reporting declines greater than 1% (Luxury Car, -1.01%; Sub-Compact Car, -1.00%).
• Premium Sporty Car reported the smallest decline at -0.45%. The segment has averaged a weekly decline rate of -0.49% over the last six weeks.
• Luxury Car reported the largest decline for the segment since the first week of November when the segment declined -1.31%.

Volume-weighted Truck segments decreased by -0.80%; the previous week had a decrease of -0.34%:

• All thirteen Truck segments reported declines last week, with four of those reporting a decline of over 1% (Full-Size Luxury Crossover/SUV, -1.38%; Small Pickup, -1.23%; Compact Crossover, -1.14%; Mid-Size Luxury Crossover/SUV, -0.07%).
• Full-Size Van had another week of small declines. This now gives the segment an average weekly decline rate of -0.16% over the last 20 weeks; in comparison to the Truck segment average weekly decline over the same period at -0.80%.

Industry News

• Subaru Canada has announced Tomohiro Kubota as the new Chariman and CEO, replacing Yasushi Enami the previous Chairman and CEO after his 5-year term concludes.
• The annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES) kicks off this Thursday, January 5th in Las Vegas, as it once again is anticipated to showcase the latest innovations in transportation and technology with probable electric vehicle unveilings from start-up and legacy automakers alike.
• The EV pickup truck market is heating up as the Ford F-150 Lightning ramps up as much production as possible, with the Chevrolet Silverado EV set to start shipping its first production units in a matter of months while Stellantis readies its Ram 1500 electric truck to be unveiled in concept form at CES in a matter of days.
• With the Canadian International Auto Show in Toronto set to take place in person next month, there are a majority of brands sitting out the event as the future of auto shows hangs in the balance for North America.