After Three Months of Decline, CBB Value Index Up Slightly in September

Canadian Black Book released its Used Vehicle Retention Index for September 2022, which grew in overall industry average wholesale value for the first time in three months. The increase brings the Index back to the level it was in July, 160.3 Index points. This is modest growth (0.3%) month-over-month, however, compared to September 2021, average wholesale value has increased 20.8%, which is substantial.

Year to date, the Index is down 1.1%, compared to January when the index began the year at 162.1 Index points. The Index peaked in March of 2022 at 165 Index points. Preceding that, March peak was a run of unprecedented growth in used values beginning in the late summer of 2020, when the Index was as low as 100.5 points.

“After the crazy ride the Index took from 2020 to March of this year, it seems as if prices have somewhat stabilized. We are seeing more normal fluctuation month-to-month. That said, this stabilization is occurring at a much higher price point compared to past years,” says David Robins, Principal Automotive Analyst and Head of Canadian Vehicle Valuations at Canadian Black Book.

Year-over-year, all segments measured by Canadian Black Book saw growth except Full-Size Pickups, which continued losing this month at a rate of lost 4.55% since last September. Like August, Sub-Compact Car and Compact car saw the most growth year-over-year, with 47.58% and 43.1% respectively, further backing up the theory that fuel prices are driving purchase behavior. On top of that, the other two categories with the least growth are Small Pickup at 2.93% and Full-sized Crossover/SUV at 0.33%, which adds to the argument about high gas prices driving consumers to smaller vehicles.

Only 8 of the 22 vehicle segments tracked on the Index saw some value growth with Minivan leading the way with month-over-month change of +1.98%, followed by Compact Car at +1.64% and Prestige Luxury Car at +1.12%. Of the remaining 14 segments, the largest value losers were Full-Size Van at -4.67%, Sporty Cars at -1.66%, and Sub-Compact Luxury Car at -1.06%.  

The Canadian Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index is calculated using CBB’s published Wholesale Average value on two to six-year-old used vehicles, as a percent of original typically equipped MSRP. It is weighted based on registration volume and adjusted for seasonality, vehicle age, mileage, and condition. The Index offers an accurate, representative, and unbiased view of the strength of today’s used vehicle market values.  The Index dates to January 2005, where the Canadian Black Book published a benchmark index value of 100.0 for the market.

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