Vehicle Wholesale Values Flat for November, Stalling Declines from Prior Months Says CBB Vehicle Retention Index

Canadian Black Book released its Used Vehicle Retention Index for November 2022, which remained relatively flat after mostly declining since March. Currently, the Index is sitting at 158.7 Index points, which is marginally higher than October at 158.5, which is a very small 0.1% month-over-month increase.

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The year-over-year increase of 4% (compared to 152.6 Index points in November of 2021) follows the steady trend of declining year-over-year increases since the start of the year. January saw massive annual growth of 44%, and every month following has decreased.

“We are seeing a much more stable market compared to the previous two years. Used and wholesale values are decreasing at more typical rates versus the astronomical increases seen from mid-2020 to end of last year,” says David Robins, Principal Automotive Analyst and Head of Canadian Vehicle Valuations at Canadian Black Book.

Year to date, the Index is down 3.4 Index points compared to January (162.1 Index points). The Index peaked in March of 2022 at 165 Index points. Preceding the March peak was a run of unprecedented growth in used values beginning in the late summer of 2020, when the Index was as low as 100.5 points.

Year-over-year, 8 out of 22 vehicle segments measured by Canadian Black Book saw value decreases over the past 12 months. The largest annual declines were felt by Full-Size Pickups, which lost -11.41% compared to November 2021, Full-Size Crossover/SUV (-11.1%), Spot Cars (-7.34%), and Small Pickup (-7.2%). These losses would suggest that fuel prices in Canada are indeed having an impact on retained values.  Conversely, Sub- Compact Car and Compact Car saw 28.7% and 18.14% growth respectively since last year.

Month-over-month, 10 segments saw growth, while 12 segments declined in value. Sub-Compact Car lead the way with a 2.1% jump over October, with Minivan next at 1.38%, and Compact Car at 1.22%. The loss leaders were Full-Size Van losing -4.18% in the month, Mid-Size Car at -3.21%, and Sub-Compact Luxury CUV/SUV with a decline of -2.25%.    The Canadian Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index is calculated using CBB’s published Wholesale Average value on two to six-year-old used vehicles, as a percent of original typically equipped MSRP. It is weighted based on registration volume and adjusted for seasonality, vehicle age, mileage, and condition. The Index offers an accurate, representative, and unbiased view of the strength of today’s used vehicle market values.  The Index dates to January 2005, where the Canadian Black Book published a benchmark index value of 100.0 for the market.

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