First Time Since Summer 2008 CBB Index Average Wholesale Values Shrinks Five Months in a Row
Canadian Black Book released its Used Vehicle Retention Index for August 2022, which has declined for the five straight month. This decline follows 8 months of consecutive growth in wholesale vehicle values in Canada and is the first consecutive 5 month stretch of value losses since 2008. For August 2022, the Index has shrunk to 159.8 Index points (-0.3%) since July, which stood at 160.3 points.
This continued decline in values is a further indication that the record high growth in price, that began skyrocketing in July of 2020 have peaked when the Index grew to 165 points back in March of this year. The months leading up to March saw an unprecedented spike in values, where the Index grew 65 points from July 2020 to March 2022. Recent losses have been modest and in fact, year over year growth is still significant with a 25% increase in wholesale values compared to August of 2021.
“The decline from July to August is not large on it’s own, however, when we look at the rate of decline in wholesale values from the peak in March of this year, we have a 3.15% decrease, which is beginning to look like more of a correction,” says David Robins, Principal Automotive Analyst and Head of Canadian Vehicle Valuations at Canadian Black Book.
Year-over-year, all segments measured by Canadian Black Book, saw growth accept Full-Size Pickup which lost 2.28% since last summer. Sub-Compact Car and Compact car saw the most growth with 51.54% and 47.14% respectively, which may suggest fuel prices are driving behavior. Other segments that have had small growth year over year are Full-Size Crossover/SUV and Small Pickups, again suggesting demand for larger vehicles may be declining due to high gas costs.
12 of the 22 vehicle segments tracked on the Index saw some value growth with Compact Van leading the way with month-over-month change of +2.52%, followed by Prestige Luxury Car at +1.82% and Compact Car at +1.11%. Of the remaining 10 segments, the largest value losers were Sporty Cars at -2.87%, Full-Size Van at -1.79% and Premium Sport Car at -1.6%.
The Canadian Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index is calculated using CBB’s published Wholesale Average value on two to six-year-old used vehicles, as a percent of original typically equipped MSRP. It is weighted based on registration volume and adjusted for seasonality, vehicle age, mileage, and condition. The Index offers an accurate, representative, and unbiased view of the strength of today’s used vehicle market values. The Index dates to January 2005, where the Canadian Black Book published a benchmark index value of 100.0 for the market.
ABOUT CANADIAN BLACK BOOK
For 60 years, Canadian Black Book has been the trusted and unbiased Canadian automotive industry source for vehicle values. Today the company has grown into a leading data provider of vehicle valuations, residual value forecast solutions, and VIN decoding. Canadian Black Book tools and information are considered ‘The Authority’ for vehicle values not only by car dealers and manufacturers but also the leasing, finance, insurance, and wholesale sectors. In 2020 Canadian Black Book brought to market its Enhance Vehicle Matching (EVM) solution, which will allow the industry to decode more consistently 17 digits VINs down to a specific trim package allowing a more precise vehicle valuation.
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